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October 3, 2011

Can The Economy Get Worse? Start Gambling.

What A Great Man Cave!
Start playing the odds like a serious gambler.  The American economy can and may get worse before it ever improves.  It is looking very probable that the American economy is headed for the wrong kind of fundamental steps to find its way out of the deep hole it is in.  The solutions coming to the table are not the kind of solutions you and I would perform to correct our own financial troubles.  We would not perform some of the steps we see coming because we know they will not help us repair the enormous size of our debt policies.  That is in fact the problem...we have expanded how we treat our debt policies.  We keep moving the debt bar higher and higher in the effort to repair the size of our debt.  At home we know we cannot personally get out of debt by raising our debt ceiling and adding more to the debt we already owe.  We know that kind of action will only increase the amount of our debt and has nothing to do with increasing our income to service that new debt.  It does not work, it will not work and it is amazing that great minds believe it will work.  With this in mind, the American economy may get worse before it gets better.  I suggest business owners start playing the game like serious gamblers.  Here is why.

The general public has lost its faith and confidence that the leaders of our economic policies have a good plan.  I do not know a single person who believes our American economic policies are spot on.  What is worse, the media does not believe it.  Furthermore, the leaders are too busy fighting among each other to correct what is obviously wrong.  The business of America is spinning out of control and the monetary advances are driving more weight to the falling objects.  To the business people of the world, this is not good policy to practice.  Of course, I do not find any business owners sitting at the American policy making tables.  The voice of how to operate a business successfully is missing in the financial policy making process.  I wonder if that is a major clue.  In my world, I call that a 'tip.'  My accountant once told me he does not understand how I make money.  He spent about an hour one time describing how difficult it would be to operate a retail business much like mine, and to make money to boot.  He said he is always mystified how we do it.  My lawyer agreed several months later when we had a similar conversation.  He said he did not know how retailers made money in this world.  He said he would never try to do what they do.  It looked too risky.

Keep in mind that the accountant and the lawyer are business owners.  They were self employed operators of their trade.  They are operating a business model.  Their product is a service.  The service they sell is something the customer buys.  The elimination of risk occurs when they do not need to 'guess' what the customer is shopping for when they come into their business model to buy.  Retailers and manufacturers need to guess what will sell before the customer comes into their model to buy.  They must gamble more seriously about what will sell and what will not.  The accountant and the lawyer could not picture themselves as taking that kind of risk.  As a result, they do not take the time to get a 'feel' for what the American customer wants to see happen in their lives.  Manufacturers and retailers do this step involuntarily.  They get a 'feel' for what the masses want to see happen.  Let me ask a question.  If this is true, do you think the American financial leaders have a 'feel' for what the American customers want to see happen?  Remember, our financial policy makers are lawyers and accountants.  Hence, the gap.  Those are the trades that do not need to get a 'feel' for the American consumer.  Therefore, the decisions they make about what should be done to improve the business of America is tainted with the wrong kind of efforts.  The policy makers of our American financial well-being have no idea how to serve the American consumer.  As a result, they use pragmatic assumptions to develop the cures for the things they think will work.  Guess what?  They have no idea how to create business in our American economy.  It is very clear that they are completely lost.

The consumers have lost their confidence.  The business owners are ticked off.  The balance of the pragmatic sectors; the politicians, the lawyers, the accountants and the government managers, are battling among themselves for the highest attention each of their beliefs and methods can muster to receive.  It is a very disturbing scene.  I know.  I also know business owners can see it.  That is not a good view for them to see.  That view, however accurate it may be, is a view of continued future demise to the American economy.  It spells some unwanted future positions for the American business models.  It makes your job to profit successfully more difficult to do.  I know.  I think we need to put on some higher topped wadding boots.  The debt is going to get deeper and the confusion will deliver more of the same unwanted stuff.  The American business landscape is headed for some more troubled grounds.  The weak will continue to give away the farm to the strong, for a song.  We will spiral deeper into less independents and more conglomerates.  That is the only way the math will work temporarily.  The math has very few options to avoid this choice.  Start gambling.  Your survival may be at serious risk.
I am not very good at predictions.  I try to predict where the business world will go but more than not I am dead wrong.  The only time I am right in my predictions is when I make some mistake turns in my own models that reveal the correct turns from the mistakes I felt due to the predictions I missed.  I make the turns, find the mistakes then correct the direction.  That is how well I predict where my business models need to be.  I error my way to success.  I am not very good at predictions.  I suck when it comes to predicting the future of trends.  Once in awhile I get one right.  Most of the time, I wear egg on my face.  I miss a lot of times in the prediction game.  It is one of my consistent attributes.

However, regarding the correction plan for the American economy, I do not think I am very far off the target on that one.  I think it is likely that our American economy will worsen deeper before it gets better.  The wrong repairs are coming to the surface.  They do not carry some good potential.

If you own a business model, and you are surviving this economic mess, I tip my hat to you.  These are some very trying times to practice being in business.  They suck, big time.  I know.  However, you also know how I feel about producing successful models in tough times.  It can be done and is being done all around us.  The reason why some are doing well is because they are not afraid to gamble to survive.  Those winners took some chances and changed how they were doing what they were doing.  They found new winning ways to help them improve their chance for success.  They made the right decision to gamble.

Lats week I met one of the owners of a famous Italian Restaurant chain.  His food establishment has been a success example for a couple of decades in the Northwest region of the country.  He said he has faced some tougher times but they have made the right adjustments to continue to make it work.  We had a nice chat.  He was building a 'man cave.'  He purchased some river front property on a remote site in the high desert country of Central/Eastern Oregon.  On the river front property was an old farm stead with some abandoned farm sheds and a couple of small storage out buildings.  They were vintage structures.  He hired an excavation crew to cut in a new and improved gravel road into the property that followed alongside the beauty of the 'once' hidden river banks.  He gated the entrance with style.  It was breath taking for those who love that kind of scenery and country.  Once I arrived to the building sites, I discovered some very nice improvements.  The sheds and out buildings where retro-fitted in the same style they originally came to be.  The original cattle, horse and early farm tools where scattered about logically and the old horse shoes, implements and tools were arranged and hanging in great design to represent what that old farm used to be.  The roadways in and around the property were improved for today's traffic and the gravel was thick and properly laid.  The construction crew he hired was building two large lean-to buildings geared to house the future of his hunting dogs and game pheasants.  They over-looked the magnificent view of the meadow below that spread right into the banks of the hidden river.  It was the sight of many great picturesque scenes we have all seen in magazines.

The old farm house was rebuilt in the respect of its original design.  Added were second story rooms, a large group dining area and a very cool commercial kitchen.  The living room was re-designed to include a massive brick fireplace.  The wood floors were re-done to appear new but with the old building style in mind.  Cattle ropes, saddles, rifles and muskets were hanging properly on the walls to represent the old days of a turn of the century farm style of life.  The dining chairs were specially made from tree stumps and covered in raw designed cow hides.  The living room furniture was leather and horse blanket throws.  The rugs were western in design and the kitchen was designed like a chuck wagon appearance.  He hired the design work from an architect and designer who specialize in this type of theme.  The outdoor decks, the rooms, the property and the whole scene was perfectly adorned in the style it was originally intended to represent.  I was in awe of the whole atmosphere.  It was a solidly designed 'man cave.'  I counted seven construction workers milling about the site doing what they do.  It was impressive to witness.

This 'man cave' would take any one living in a metro area about three hours to arrive.  The owner of the new project told me he was currently cutting in a runway for small planes on the backside of the property.  He had hoped to get his new "lodge" opened for business in 2012.  It will include fly fishing on the property, catch and release.  It will include horseback riding to several 'open-air' campsites where the riders bring nap sacks, tents and spend the night over an open campfire.  There will be hunting on the huge site.  Most of it will be stocked with pheasants during the arranged hunts.  He has included a place for a western band to perform on the back side of the property near a huge, outdoor rock fireplace.  He will bring one of his chefs out to the country to cook for the guests, hence the runway.

I asked him why he decided to do this business project.  He said it was time to gamble in this economy.  He felt that many professional, high-level managers and corporations are strongly looking for some kind of unique experience they can provide for their stressful lifestyles.  They want to have a complete and unique experience that represents how things used to be.  He also said those same people are not accustomed to 'roughing it' but want to think they are.  He said many of his customers can afford to do this kind of thing and are running out of great options to make it happen in their life of stress.  He hired a booking agency who specializes in this kind of event planning.  They are booked already for two years in advance.  He has been working on this gamble for about four years.  He said he could feel the change in the economy back then and felt he needed to make a gamble to do something that had little competition when the time arrived to serve this increased need.  He felt that the poor economy was playing right into his hand.  By the way, in the broken housing market one bright spot has surfaced.  Ranch style homes are in great demand!  Go figure.

This new 'resort' has a specific target of the market he wanted to attract.  He has included satellite and wireless Internet with large screen monitors placed around the property for the executives to view anything they need or want to see.  Even the barn has been properly equipped with modern technology!  I teased him about those additions.  He said, "Don't forget, these executives are locked into the work they do.  Locked in.  They need to know they can still do their business while they play.  I call and check on my restaurant chain every single day from here!  It is vital to our continued success to maintain ties to those businesses."

This was a serious gamble.  Hard times drove his motives.  He will find more success during hard times because he is 'in-tune' with what hard times bring.  He considers his move to be a very well-calculated gamble.  He approached it professionally.  He said this move may be his best one, yet.  The alcohol and espresso bar in the first shed with wooden chairs arranged around the sports den was a great place to see.  He said the favorite team mascot stuff will be on site for every single guest who arrives.  He said, "If they are a Buckeye, everything will be Buckeyes in the room.  If they are a Yankee fan, everything in the shed will be Yankees.  It will be the perfect 'man cave' for my clients."  What a gamble.

This is how the winners do what they do.  They make money even when the economy does not.  Start gambling to build a better future in spite of how bad the economy looks.  By the way, he also mentioned that in the past two years he has added 143 new jobs in his business model!  I was watching seven of them at work on that site alone.  Like I said earlier...maybe we need to punt the lawyers and accountants away from our country's financial table.  Maybe some business owners could do a better job of knowing what the consumers want.

Until next time...

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